Key decision-makers in non-aligned Finland and Sweden are set to announce their positions on NATO membership this week in what could be a serious blow to Russia as its military struggles to make decisive gains in Ukraine.
If Finland’s president and the Social Democrats who govern both countries ignore Moscow's warnings and come out in favor of accession, NATO could soon add two new members right on Russia’s doorstep.
Such an expansion by the Western military alliance would leave Russia surrounded by NATO countries in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic, as well as represent a serious setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin cited NATO's previous expansion in Eastern Europe - and the possibility of Ukraine joining the alliance - among the reasons for Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. On Monday, he marked Victory Day - the holiday when Russia commemorates Nazi Germany's surrender in World War II - without being able to celebrate any major breakthroughs in Ukraine.
Belonging to NATO would be a historic development for the two Nordic countries: Sweden has avoided military alliances for more than 200 years, while Finland adopted neutrality after its defeat by the Soviet Union in World War II.
NATO membership was never seriously considered in Stockholm and Helsinki until Russian forces attacked Ukraine more than 10 weeks ago. Virtually overnight, the conversation in both capitals shifted from "Why should we join?" to "How long does it take?”
Along with hard-nosed Ukrainian resistance and wide-ranging Western sanctions, it’s one of the most significant ways in which the invasion appears to have backfired on Putin.
"There is no going back to the status quo before the invasion,” said Heli Hautala, a Finnish diplomat previously posted to Moscow and a research fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, the Western leader who appeared to have the best rapport with Putin before the Ukraine war, is expected to announce his stance on NATO membership on Thursday. The governing Social Democratic parties in both countries are set to present their positions this weekend.
If their answer is "yes,” there would be robust majorities in both parliaments for NATO membership, paving the way for formal application procedures to begin right away.
