A study of patients infected with Covid-19 at a large hospital in the South African city where the first outbreak of the omicron variant was recorded showed an infection wave that moved with "unprecedented speed” and caused much milder illness than earlier strains.
That, the researchers who analyzed data at the Steve Biko Academic Hospital in Pretoria said, could be an indication that the pandemic is coming to an end. Data from South Africa, the first country to have a major omicron outbreak, is being closely watched to see how infections from the variant may pan out globally.
"If this pattern continues and is repeated globally, we are likely to see a complete decoupling of case and death rates,” the researchers said. That suggests "omicron may be a harbinger of the end of the epidemic phase of the Covid pandemic, ushering in its endemic phase.”
The study showed that just 4.5% of patients with Covid-19 died during their stay in the current wave compared with 21% in earlier waves, a statement on the website of the South African Medical Research Council showed. Fewer people were admitted to intensive-care units and hospital stays were "significantly shorter.”
Asymptomatic Disease
The rate of admissions climbed rapidly but began to decline within 33 days of the first admission analyzed, the study said. A snapshot of patients in the hospital on Dec. 14 and 15 showed that almost two-thirds of those infected with Covid-19 had been admitted for other reasons.
"This phenomenon has not been observed to this extent before in the Steve Biko Academic Hospital Complex or anywhere in South Africa,” the study said. It "most likely reflects high levels of asymptomatic disease in the community with omicron infection,” it said.
The study at the state-owned hospital analyzed records of 466 patients from the current wave and 3,976 from previous bouts of infection. It also found:
Hospital stays averaged 4 days compared with 8.8 in previous waves
The mean age of those admitted was 39 compared with almost 50 in earlier waves
Admissions to intensive-care units dropped to 1% of patients from 4.3%
Admissions peaked at 108 compared with 213 during the delta wave
The findings "were comparable to city-wide trends when cases and admissions from all public and private hospital reported,” the researchers said. There was "a lower admission per case ratio, lower death rate and lower rates of admission to the ICU compared to previous waves.”
