The Syrian ceasefire, negotiated by the US and Russia, appears to be holding for the sixth day since its implementation. But that’s no guarantee for how long it will hold because the signals are positive and negative -- positive because it can continue to remain intact if both sides refrain from actions that will torpedo the deal; negative because of accusations of violations on both sides to wreck the deal. For example, the Russian military said yesterday that the ‘situation was worsening’ and rebels were stepping up attacks. A Russian military spokesperson said that in the past 24 hours, the number of attacks has risen sharply with 55 attacks on government positions and civilians, adding that the US will be responsible for any breakdown in the ceasefire.
While the ceasefire deal itself has been a success, as it is the most significant peacemaking effort in Syria for months, bringing a respite in fighting, its biggest drawback has been the lack of a mutually agreed mechanism to enforce the deal. In the current situation, any side can unilaterally walk out from the deal if they want and blame it on the other side. Moscow has already said US will be responsible for any breakdown of the truce if Washington doesn’t take “necessary measures to fulfill its obligations”.
Though a ceasefire can be a prelude to a long-term solution to the crisis, the situation on the ground makes any such optimism unwarranted. The biggest advantage of the current ceasefire, like all ceasefires during fighting, is the delivery of badly needed aid to areas which have been inaccessible due to fighting. Even a small break in fighting can make a huge difference to civilians whose lives have been torn apart and have suffered from years of fighting.
But the supply of aid hasn’t been hassle-free. Top United Nations officials have accused the Syrian regime of hindering access to the besieged areas. The Syrian regime has denied the charge and said it has done all it was required, but the there is no need to distrust the UN which is an independent organization and has been carrying out humanitarian work for the benefit of all civilians.
It’s time for US, Russia and the rest of the international community to think about a permanent solution to the Syrian crisis. n its sixth year now, the war has cost hundreds of thousands of lives, displaced millions of people which, according to reports, amount to half of Syria’s pre-war population, caused a refugee crisis in Europe with huge repercussions and inspired a wave of jihadist attacks across the world.
