File photo used for representation only.
DOHA: Qatar’s economy is charting an optimistic path beyond the FIFA World Cup era, shifting from years of infrastructure-heavy investment toward a more diversified, service-led model of expansion, according to an analysis by Knight Frank.
The report published this week highlights that between 2020 and 2024, real non-hydrocarbon GDP grew at a compound annual rate of 3.4 percent, driven by rapid gains in the hospitality, logistics, retail, and real estate services sectors. That momentum has carried over into this year, with non-hydrocarbon activity rising 5.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 and 3.4 percent in the second quarter.
Researchers attribute this sustained performance to Qatar’s successful efforts to leverage the physical and institutional legacy of the 2022 World Cup, while simultaneously advancing long-term reforms. Central to this shift is the government’s Third National Development Strategy (NDS3), which places greater emphasis on productivity, innovation, and the creation of knowledge-based industries.
The study notes a meaningful structural rebalancing across the economy. While construction continues to play a significant role, its share of GDP has declined from 13.4 percent in 2021 to 11.3 percent last year as other sectors expand. Industries such as accommodation and food services, arts and recreation, logistics, and real estate have grown sharply since 2022.
This evolution is reshaping the labor market as well, with more jobs emerging in tourism, logistics, and digital services. Knight Frank says these trends are transforming the real estate sector, where demand is increasingly driven by underlying economic activity rather than large, project-led development cycles.
Qatar’s fiscal credentials remain a cornerstone of its economic resilience. Despite softer hydrocarbon prices this year, the country’s fiscal position remains strong, with the IMF estimating a fiscal breakeven oil-equivalent price of just $44.70 per barrel. Public debt has fallen sharply from 72.6 percent of GDP in 2020 to 40.8 percent in 2024 and is expected to decline further by December-end.
Population growth is also bolstering domestic demand as residents aged 15 and older grew at a compound rate of 3.1 percent between 2022 and 2024, compared with less than 1 percent over the previous six years. New long-term residency options, including the Mustaqel five-year visa, are encouraging greater residential stability and supporting the housing market, particularly among skilled expatriates and entrepreneurs.
With strong macroeconomic fundamentals, a rising population, and a policy environment geared toward diversification, Qatar’s medium-term outlook remains positive, Knight Frank states. The continued rollout of NDS3 through 2030 is expected to increase private-sector participation and foster new growth opportunities in logistics, tourism, and digital services. For the real estate market, these dynamics point to steady demand across residential and hospitality segments.
