The economic immigration pressure from South Asia into the Middle East is expected to ease in a big way over the next three decades, because of south Asia’s continuing process of income convergence, according to IMF.
The world migrant share between 2020 and 2050 is nearly stable, at just above 3 percent of the world population. Therefore, at the global level, there is no surge in migration.
However, the share of emerging market and developing economies (EMDE) immigrants into advanced economies keeps increasing to about 16 percent of the total population of advanced economies; despite the negative effect that income convergence has on EMDE emigration.
IMF's latest report on ‘Macroeconomic effects of global migration’ (2020-2050) released on Friday, noted that migration will raise a vast and multifaceted array of macroeconomic issues. The large interregional migration corridor for the next wave of migration, however, includes the corridors from South Asia to the Middle East, and from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe.
The migration pressures within Europe and central Asia are also projected to ease, caused by a combination of higher income per capita and falling population in the group of emerging market economies within the region. Fostering higher growth and more job opportunities in EMDEs is often heralded as a way to enable migrants to stay in their home countries and thereby reduce migration pressure in advanced economies. Migration pressures are expected to fall in all emigration-prone regions, including from Africa and the Middle East taken as a whole.
The only exception is subSaharan Africa, where emigration pressure increases marginally because the higher growth alleviates poverty traps, which are still present in many countries. Migration from EMDEs toward advanced economies has increased significantly over the past several decades.
Migration from EMDEs to advanced economies has now reached almost the same level as migration between EMDEs. Between 1990 and 2019 the share of migrants from EMDEs to advanced economies rose from 4 percent to 9 percent of the advanced economy population, while EMDE-to-EMDE migration remained stable at about 2 percent of the EMDE population.
Migration generally improves the macroeconomic outcomes of recipient economies. The “dynamic gains” from immigration, in the form of rising TFP (total factor productivity) and investment, can be attributed to the complementarity between the skills of immigrants and natives.
Active labour market policies, spending on vocational training and adult education, and policies aimed at integrating migrants could boost the macroeconomic gains from immigration. International financial support and policy coordination are needed to address refugee crises and support the integration of refugees in destination countries.
