In this file photo, former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad gives a thumbs-up sign during the launch of the Proton Savvy, the national carmaker's new model in Kuala Lumpur on June 8, 2005. AFP / Tengku Bahar / File photo
Kuala Lumpur: Hong Leong Investment Bank said in a note on Wednesday that it expects Malaysia's total industry volume (TIV) for 2025 to normalize down to a 750,000-unit level, after achieving a record high of 816,700 units in 2024, mainly due to declining order backlogs and easing new order intakes over the coming months.
"Nevertheless, there is still upside potential from exciting new model launches in 2025, along with more aggressive marketing activities to sustain sales by the various original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), but at the expense of margins," said the research house.
The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) announced earlier that TIV registered an expected weak 60,500 units, a drop of 16.8 percent month-on-month in April, affected by fewer working days during the month.
Despite the ongoing aggressive sales campaigns by various OEMs, year-to-date TIV (January to April) still fell 5.4 percent to 248,700 units, affected by the market normalization trend with lower order backlogs.
MAA projected Malaysia's TIV to be at 780,000 units this year.
Meanwhile, MIDF Research maintained Malaysia's 2025 TIV forecast at 792,000 units, a 3 percent year-on-year decline, which is broadly in line with MAA's projection as high base effects begin to set in.
"With the revised excise duty for completely knocked down vehicles now scheduled to take effect in January 2026, potentially raising car prices by 1 percent to 30 percent if the ruling is upheld, there may be some degree of frontloading in demand this year," said the research house.
