Doha, Qatar: Qatar’s economy is showing signs of renewed strength heading into the second half of 2025, with Cushman & Wakefield highlighting resilience in non-energy sectors and steady progress in reforms underpinning real estate and tourism.
The report released this week by the research platform points to an upgraded GDP forecast of 2.7 percent this year, up 0.3 percentage points from earlier estimates, with growth expected to accelerate to 4.8 percent in 2026. The adjustment reflects stronger-than-expected first-quarter (Q1) performance, when the economy expanded 3.7 percent year-on-year (YOY), driven largely by wholesale trade, retail, accommodation, and food services.
However, high-frequency indicators suggest momentum was carried into the second quarter (Q2). The June Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52, a three-month high, lifting the Q2 average to 51.2 from 51.1 in Q1. “The PMI signals continued expansion in private sector activity, despite some cooling in new orders,” Cushman & Wakefield stated. Employment growth has been particularly notable, with the latest Labour Force Survey showing a 2.8 percent annual increase in Q1 headcount, marking one of the strongest hiring periods on record.
Oxford Economics, meanwhile, has revised its fiscal projections, still expecting Qatar to post a budget surplus this year but scaling it back to QR15bn (1.8 percent of GDP) from QR23bn previously. Second-quarter budget data revealed a second consecutive deficit, totalling QR1.3bn in H1, as spending rose 5.7 percent YOY due to higher wages and project outlays, offsetting stable revenues buoyed by hydrocarbons.
On prices, Oxford Economics cut its 2025 inflation forecast by 0.6 percentage points to 0.4 percent, citing subdued consumer demand and weaker price pressures across most of the CPI basket.
Market experts at the entity affirmed that, “Inflation in Qatar is among the lowest in the region, which supports purchasing power and business confidence. This gives policymakers breathing room to align with global monetary trends without stifling growth.”
Energy prospects are equally robust, with Qatar’s LNG expansion on track to lift capacity to 142 million tonnes per year by 2030. First output from the North Field East project is slated for mid-2026, reinforcing Qatar’s long-term role as a global gas supplier.
On the other hand, tourism and infrastructure remain central to the non-energy sector. Tourist arrivals rose 3 percent YOY in H1 to 2.6 million, according to Qatar Tourism, with hotel occupancy steady at 71 percent. Investment momentum also continues, including GCC-backed projects abroad such as the $1bn Alam El Roum development in Egypt, part of a wider $7.5bn regional plan.
Meanwhile, real estate regulation advanced this year as Aqarat activated provisions of Law No. 6 of 2014 in April, while in July, the Ministry of Justice issued executive regulations for Law No. 5 of 2024 on property registration. Market experts see these steps as critical for aligning the sector with Qatar National Vision 2030.
Analysts note that Qatar’s combination of fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and targeted investment is keeping growth on a stable path while the balance between energy expansion and non-energy diversification makes the outlook particularly resilient.
