LONDON: Opec expects its share of the world oil market to shrink in 2015 for a third year running, due in part to the US shale oil boom, giving the exporter group little comfort from an acceleration in global demand.
Making its first 2015 forecast in a monthly report, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand for its oil in next year would average 29.37 million barrels per day (b/d), down 310,000 b/d from 2014.
The report by the 12-member cartel points to ample supplies next year, especially if there is further progress in resolving outages in Opec countries such as Libya, Iraq and Iran. Those production problems have curbed supply this year and helped support prices above $100 a barrel.
“Even if next year’s world economic growth turns out to be better than expected and crude oil demand outperforms expectations, Opec will have sufficient supply to provide to the market,” the report from Opec’s Vienna headquarters said.
The report is also a further illustration that technology for extracting oil and gas from shale is, for now, reducing dependence on Opec. Next year would be the third in a row in which demand for Opec crude will decline, it said. Opec also forecast a recovery in demand next year as economic growth gathers pace, predicting that world oil use will expand by 1.21m b/d, up from this year’s 1.13m b/d increase.
But non-Opec supply, the source of two in every three barrels, is expected to increase next year by 1.31m b/d, more than demand, with the United States leading the way. Opec expects US production to average 13.12m b/d in 2015, up 880,000 b/d from 2014 and the highest increase of all non-Opec countries. Reuters
