BEIJING: Chinese exports grew faster than expected in October, data showed yesterday, adding to signs the economy is picking up though analysts cautioned that global headwinds could block further improvement.
The General Administration of Customs said overseas shipments expanded 5.6 percent year-on-year to $185.4bn last month, reversing a 0.3-percent fall in September. The result was also ahead of a median forecast of 1.5 percent in a poll of economists by the Wall Street Journal.
Imports increased 7.6 percent to $154.3bn, also beating the estimates of a 7.4 percent rise.
And the trade surplus widened to $31.1bn from September’s $15.2bn but down 3.3 percent from October 2012.
The figures are the latest to suggest the world’s number two economy is emerging from a painful slowdown witnessed at the start of the year fuelled by drooping global demand.
Last month Beijing said economic growth picked up to 7.8 percent in the June-September period, snapping two quarters of slowing expansion. And this month official figures showed manufacturing activity at the country s factories had hit an 18-month high in October.
However, analysts remained wary, warning of future problems, including continued sluggish overseas demand.
(The) outlook of the trade sector remains tepid as suggested by extremely weak orders in the recent Canton Fair, said economists with ANZ bank in a research note, referring to a major trade fair in the southern city of Guangzhou that closed on Monday.
Export contracts signed at the event, also called China Import and Export Fair, hit their lowest in four years, according to the organisers website.
Economists with Nomura International said China s economic expansion was likely to slow in the last three months of the year as the authorities, who have said they now prefer growth quality to speed, have started tightening policies after the economy stabilised.
On a quarterly basis, we maintain our view that GDP growth peaked in Q3 and will slow in Q4 as a result of policy tightening, they said in a research note.
ANZ also pointed to likely mounting appreciation pressure on the Chinese currency in the foreseeable future given the surge in the trade surplus.
The yuan’s exchange rate, effectively controlled by Chinese authorities, has been appreciating against the dollar in the past few years, in large part due to pressure from the United States to address what Washington says is an unfair trade advantage.
AFP
