Doha, Qatar: S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Qatar’s long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings at ‘AA/A-1+’, maintaining a stable outlook.
The ratings agency said Qatar’s substantial fiscal and external assets, strong financial buffers and flexibility in government spending would help the country withstand security and trade disruptions linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
S&P also maintained Qatar’s transfer and convertibility assessment at ‘AA+’, reflecting its assessment of the country’s ability to meet its financial obligations despite regional uncertainties.
The agency highlighted Qatar’s considerable financial reserves, particularly assets held through the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), as a major source of protection against external shocks.
S&P estimates the government’s liquid assets at approximately 200 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), including its assessment of QIA assets and government deposits in the banking system.
Additionally, Qatar Central Bank’s gross foreign exchange reserves stood at $60.6bn at the end of August 2026, while foreign currency liquidity amounted to approximately $11.5bn.
According to S&P, these financial resources provide the government with significant capacity to manage market volatility, support economic stability and finance recovery efforts during and after periods of regional disruption.
The agency stated that it expects the economy to begin recovering in 2027 as gas production moves closer to pre-conflict levels.
S&P also pointed to the resilience of Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon economy, which recorded growth of 3 percent during the first half of 2026. It expects this sector to remain resilient, supported partly by the economic benefits generated by the expansion of LNG production.
Government spending flexibility and relatively low public debt levels were also identified as important factors supporting Qatar’s creditworthiness.
Government expenditure reached QR95bn in the first half of 2026, representing a 14 percent decline compared with the corresponding period last year.
S&P noted that Qatar has previously demonstrated fiscal discipline during periods of economic pressure, reducing expenditure by 6 percent in 2014 and 15 percent in 2015 during an oil price downturn. Spending was also reduced by 8 percent during the 2017 and 12 percent during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The agency expects the government to maintain a prudent spending approach, helping contain the impact of potential revenue shortfalls. Combined with an anticipated recovery in LNG production, this is expected to support a return to fiscal surpluses from 2027.
A key driver of the projected recovery will be Qatar’s ambitious LNG expansion programme. The country plans to increase its annual LNG production capacity from the current 77 million tonnes to 142 million tonnes by 2030, representing an increase of almost 85 percent.
“We forecast Qatar’s economic growth will rebound from 2027, supported by the ongoing expansion of LNG production, from an estimated 14% contraction in 2026. We forecast real GDP growth will sharply recover to 15% in 2027, followed by an average growth rate of 8% over 2028-2029, as new gas production comes online, as per our base-case scenario. Despite ongoing disruptions in LNG production, we expect the North Field expansion to go ahead, albeit with some delays,” it noted.
The agency added that rising energy demand from rapidly developing Asian economies, together with LNG’s role as a transitional fuel in the global energy transition, would support Qatar’s export prospects.
Higher global oil and gas prices amid supply disruptions could also strengthen the country’s economic performance and improve its fiscal and external balances from 2027.
S&P’s assessment underscores the importance of Qatar’s accumulated financial reserves, energy sector strength and prudent fiscal management in supporting its sovereign credit profile amid an uncertain regional environment.
